Daily Economic Update

Global: Central bankers’ Jackson Hole meeting, UK/Japan inflation, and flash PMIs across all major markets key events this week.  Heads of the major central banks will meet at the annual Jackson Hole symposium in Wyoming this Thursday-Saturday, and US Fed chair Powell’s speech on Friday could provide clues about what to expect at the September FOMC meeting. In terms of data releases, in the US, minutes from the Fed’s last policy meeting will be released Wednesday, providing more clarity on members’ take on inflation and the economy. S&P Global flash PMI surveys are due on Thursday, with consensus forecasts pointing to slowing services activity in August (53.3 from 55.7 in July). In the UK, July’s CPI inflation prints are due on Wednesday, with the street expecting a further acceleration in headline price rises (3.7% y/y from 3.6% in June) but a steady core rate of 3.7%. Flash PMIs will be released on Thursday, with estimates indicating some improvements across manufacturing (to 48.3 from 48 in July) and services (to 52 from 51.8) activities. Retail sales growth (due on Friday) in July is seen slowing to 0.6% m/m from June’s 0.9%. In the Eurozone, June’s balance of trade data will be released later today, with the consensus expecting a €17.5 billion surplus, up from May’s €16.2 billion figure. Meanwhile, August’s flash PMI data is due on Thursday, with both manufacturing and services PMIs seen weakening to 49.5 and 50.6 from 49.8 and 51 in July, respectively. In Japan, PMI flash estimates for August will be released on Thursday, with manufacturing expected to remain weak at 49 versus 48.9 in July. July’s consumer inflation is due on Friday, and the consensus expects the core rate (excl. fresh food) to ease to 3% from June’s 3.3% y/y. Finally, in China, the PBoC’s decision on the one and five-year loan prime rates is due on Wednesday, with the street projecting the rates to remain unchanged at 3.0% and 3.5%, respectively. 

Oil: Prices dropped ahead of Trump-Putin summit. Brent futures fell 1.1% w/w to close Friday at $65.9/bbl, with the market anticipating in advance a more bearish-for-oil prices outcome at the Trump-Putin summit held on Friday. In the end, the meeting was largely inconclusive, producing no ceasefire or peace agreement other than Trump’s message that it went “really well” and that he has no immediate plans to penalize buyers of Russian oil vis-à-vis secondary sanctions. He intends to revisit this issue though “in two or three weeks”, around the time the 25% additional tariff he placed on imports from India (for buying Russian crude) is due to go live. Meanwhile, also compounding the bearish bias that started earlier in the week with the IEA’s downbeat global oil demand growth assessment (more details here) was a second increase in three weeks in US commercial crude inventories (up 3 mb w/w to 426.7 mb in the w/e August 8).

Chart 1: Oil prices ($/bbl) Source: Haver

UAE: FDI Intelligence ranks the UAE as the second most preferred destination for FDI. The UAE emerged as the second most preferred destination globally for FDI, trailing only the US, and as the top performer in the Greenfield FDI Performance Index for 2025, relative to the size of its economy, according to FDI Intelligence. Last year, the country attracted AED167 billion ($45.5 billion) in FDI, marking a 48% increase and underscoring its growing appeal to investors. The robust performance was supported by a wide range of strategic initiatives that included amendments to the commercial companies’ law, which allowed for 100% foreign ownership of companies, streamlined visa protocols, and the NextGen FDI program, which accelerated licensing, expanded golden-visa issuance and provided lease incentives for tech companies. In addition, the signing of Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreements (CEPAs) with multiple countries have bolstered bilateral investment flows. The UAE is aiming to attract AED1.3 trillion ($354 billion) in cumulative FDI by 2031, according to the “we the UAE 2031” vision, to solidify its stance as a global investment hub.

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