Economic Research

FOMC minutes reveal a growing concern for inflation risk

Egypt’s central bank governor reappointed amid improving investor sentiment

Kuwait's oil output recovering on OPEC-8 supply cut unwinding

Central bankers’ Jackson Hole meeting and flash PMIs key events this week

Saudi inflation eased to five-month low in July

IEA expects record oil supply glut in 2026

US core CPI accelerates, broadly matching expectations

Kuwait's real estate sales hit near 7-year high in July

Oil prices are on the defensive, ranging at two-month lows, as concerns intensify over the health of the global economy ...

Egypt's inflation eases to 3-month low in July

UK BoE cuts rates by 25 bps in a hawkish narrow vote split

Trump imposes 25% additional tariffs on India for buying Russian oil 

US services activity stalls in July amid stagflation signals

Gulf PMIs mixed but overall signal further solid growth in July

Kuwait: Resilient business credit growth and improving household lending in Q2

Kuwait posts strong bank credit growth in June

US job market abruptly weakens, Trump amplifies policy uncertainty

Fed and BoJ both leave rates steady 

US and China agree to continue talks on tariff truce

European stocks slide after EU trade deal with the US

US and EU strike trade deal, with 15% tariff on most EU goods

US July PMI shows rise in business activity alongside higher prices

US vows 15-50% tariffs on most countries, EU may face a 15% rate

Kuwait: Investment segment leads real estate rebound in Q2 2025

US reaches trade agreement with Japan 

Kuwait's population pushes past 5 million for the first time

Kuwait: GDP returns to growth in Q1 2025 as impact of oil output cuts fades

Kuwait mulls creating huge domestic investment fund

Upbeat data underline resilient US economy and drive US equities higher

Kuwait's GDP returned to growth in Q1

US June core CPI inflation lower than expected but tariffs starting to have an impact on consumer prices

China's Q2 GDP growth beats estimates

China: Growth in exports accelerates in June, beating expectations.

US: Trump increases tariffs on the US’s three-largest trading partners and indicates a 15-20% minimum tariff for all countries.

Egypt: Inflation below expectations in June.

US: Trump announces 50% copper tariff, threatens 200% pharma tariff, and hardens stance on country-specific ones.

Kuwait: Real estate sales rebound in Q2, led by the investment segment.

Kuwait: Real estate sales rebound in Q2, led by the investment segment.

US: Trump’s tariff letters to start going out on Monday; June’s headline job growth higher-than-expected.

Kuwait: PMI solid in June, with employment component at a record high.

US: Senate narrowly passes the tax and spending bill; it now moves to the House.

Kuwait banking credit shows solid growth in business and household sectors.

Recent data releases point to a pick-up in key activity metrics after a slowdown in Q1. The ramp-up in Israel-Iran hostilities has sharply increased regional uncertainty...

As long as tariff cases are in front of the courts, not much progress can be expected in terms of US trade negotiations with trading partners.

Kuwait’s external current account surplus remained huge in 2024, despite narrowing for the second straight year to reach 29% of GDP, mainly on lower oil exports.

The global economic outlook has markedly weakened due to tariff developments with the IMF slashing its growth forecast to 2.8% in 2025, driven by hits to the US and China.

Economic growth should return to positive territory in 2025-26 as the oil sector expands following the unwinding of OPEC+ voluntary production cuts. 

Economic growth is expected to rise to even stronger levels of 3.4% on average in 2025-26 as still-solid non-oil expansion is met with a recovery in oil sector output. 

Economic growth in Bahrain, Oman, and Qatar is forecast to proceed at a moderate pace in 2025 and 2026, buoyed especially by higher output volumes in the hydrocarbon sector. 

Egypt’s commitment to FX flexibility and fiscal discipline is becoming more deeply rooted, with limited foreign asset drawdowns in the banking sector and continued subsidy reforms.

Although downside risks to the UAE’s externally-exposed economy have increased, our base case outlook for 2025-26 remains relatively upbeat with GDP growth averaging 4.2% in 2025-26 led by higher oil production

Inflation dropped to 12.8% in February, paving the way for interest rate cuts starting April. The CBE is expected to lower rates by 2-3% initially and by another 3-5% later in the year, easing financing costs and boosting investment.

Saudi Arabia: Non-oil economic growth averaged an impressive 4.8% in 2021-24, driven by unprecedented government-led investment in key strategic sectors as part of the Kingdom’s Vision 2030 development plan.

The Kuwait government recently approved the draft FY25/26 budget, which projects a wider deficit of KD6.3 billion (13% of GDP), from KD 5.6 billion in the FY24/25 budget. 

Kuwait: Real estate sales witnessed a broad-based improvement across all segments in Q4 2024, amid stronger demand in the investment and commercial segments especially.

Oil prices fell in 2024, weighed down by concerns over the robustness of global oil demand growth amid weak economic activity in China...

Kuwait's domestic credit ended the year on a strong note, increasing by a solid 1.2% in Q4, driving up 2024 growth to 3.7% following a multi-year low of 1.7% in 2023. 

Official data showed non-oil GDP growth at -2.5% y/y in Q3 24, but other recent indicators are more upbeat. Real estate activity climbed strongly in Q4 24...

Kuwait: Preliminary data show GDP fell in Q3 2024, but historical figures revised stronger