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Daily Economic Update
13.11.2025
US: President Trump signs the funding deal, ending the government shutdown. President Trump stamped the stopgap funding deal passed earlier this morning in the House in a 222-209 vote following its advancement in the Senate previously. This ends the longest US government shutdown (43 days) on record, with the Congressional Budget Office estimating a six-week long shutdown deducts 1.5% from Q4’s GDP (though much of the lost output should be recovered in the following period). A reopening of the federal government enables the Bureau of Labor Statistics to resume the release of economic data, with the agency expected to announce an updated calendar for its data releases in the coming days. However, White House press secretary Leavitt said that the employment and CPI inflation reports for October might not be released as data-collection surveys during the month were impacted due to the shutdown. The current funding agreement allows the government to fully function through January 30, 2026. As we wrote previously, the key demand by Democrats related to the extension of subsidized healthcare insurance but this is unresolved, with no guarantee of progress on that matter before the January 30 deadline. Hence, if the issue lingers until then, a renewed eruption in the political stalemate is likely.
Oil: OPEC acknowledges developing oil surplus in latest report, prices retreat in response. In its November oil market report, OPEC revised upwards its estimate for the volume of oil reaching markets in the July-September period, flipping the market into a surplus. The acknowledgment on the balance of the oil market in Q3 represents a rare change in position for the oil exporters’ group from its long-held one that global demand would continue to run ahead of supply in the medium term, leaving the market tight. The shift is perhaps not a surprising one, though, given that OPEC-8 earlier in the month opted to pause unwinding members’ voluntary cuts for Q1 2026 over the uncertain demand outlook and the risk of inventory builds. Rather than identifying weaker demand as the culprit for the flip from its earlier estimate of a 400 kb/d deficit to a surplus of 500 kb/d in Q3, OPEC cited higher-than-expected crude oil production from the US and higher-than-previously estimated production from its own members. Moving into Q4, according to OPEC secondary sources, aggregate OPEC+ production (total DoC) actually fell in October, by 73 kb/d to 43.0 mb/d, with gains from Saudi Arabia (+43 kb/d to 10.0 mb/d), Kuwait (+37 kb/d to 2.55 mb/d) and Iraq (+34 kb/d to 4.1 mb/d) more than offset by declines in Kazakhstan (-155 kb/d to 1.71 mb/d), Iran (-66 kb/d to 3.21 mb/d) and Libya (-30 kb/d to 1.28 mb/d) among others. On oil demand, the group left its full year average growth forecast unchanged at 1.3 mb/d for 2025 and 1.4 mb/d for 2026, figures that are at the top end of international forecasts and far higher than the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) sub-0.8 mb/d oil demand growth rate over the same period. Oil prices posted their steepest decline in a month after OPEC –until now the most bullish of forecasters – published its report, with Brent futures dropping 3.8% d/d to $62.7/bbl by Wednesday’s close. The IEA, it will publish its monthly oil market update later today. It yesterday published its annual long-term assessment of energy market trends, softening its earlier tone that oil demand would peak by 2030 by also presenting a scenario that sees demand grow until 2050 in the event government commitment to climate change policies weakens.
Japan: Producer price inflation falls slightly in October but exceeds expectations. The producer price index (PPI) rose by 2.7% y/y in October, exceeding consensus estimates of a 2.5% increase. However, that was lower than the previous month’s 2.8% y/y increase, and much improved from the 4%+ increases seen at the beginning of the year. Agricultural products continued to contribute most to the increase, with producers still affected by a poor harvest and other factors that caused the price of staples like rice to almost double since the beginning of the year. The softer PPI inflation was supported by a continued decline in import prices, which fell for the ninth consecutive month and recorded a 1.5% y/y drop in October.
UAE: Dubai’s property sales remain at an upward trend in October. Dubai’s real estate market recorded AED 59.4 billion in sales during October, marking one of the strongest performances of the year despite a slight moderation from the historical peak in June (AED 66.8 billion). Yearly growth declined by 3.1% y/y in October from 21.2% in September, largely due to high base effects (October 2024 was the strongest month of that year). The decline was driven primarily by villa sales, which fell 37% y/y to AED 15.5 billion, reflecting a sharp drop in off-plan transactions (-51% y/y to AED 8.4 billion), continuing the trend seen in September. Apartment sales, which accounted for 52% of total transactions, also softened, rising only by 3.4% y/y compared to 21% in September. This slowdown was mainly due to weaker off-plan activity (5.8% y/y versus 28% in September), though off-plan apartments still represented 74% of total apartment sales. In contrast, plot sales provided support, increasing 24% y/y to AED11 billion, signaling continued demand for land development opportunities. Momentum in real estate sales is expected to remain positive in 2026, supported by strong foreign demand, a weaker US dollar, and ongoing government initiatives to expand housing supply. The latter, which could accelerate as Dubai’s affordable housing scheme picks up pace, will likely put further moderating pressure on residential price growth.
Egypt: IMF mission on track as new Gulf investments reinforce Egypt’s external position. Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly announced that Egypt and the IMF have agreed on a specific date for the upcoming mission to Cairo to finalize the fifth and sixth reviews of the Extended Fund Facility (EFF), with the official date to be announced soon by the Fund. He confirmed that all program-related commitments have been implemented and that the reform track is progressing smoothly without external pressure. On the investment front, Madbouly highlighted that most of the proceeds from the recently signed Alam El-Roum deal with Qatar will be received in December, with the $3.5 billion cash component primarily directed toward reducing Egypt’s external public debt. Moody’s described the Qatari investment as a credit-positive development, reaffirming Egypt’s Caa1 rating with a positive outlook, noting that sustained regional support and stronger FDI inflows would help anchor exchange rate stability, reinforce investor confidence, and improve debt affordability over time. Meanwhile, Kuwait remains in talks with the Egyptian government to convert its $4 billion deposits at the Central Bank of Egypt into direct investments across several sectors, further underscoring growing Gulf investor commitment to Egypt’s medium-term stabilization path.