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Daily Economic Update
27.04.2026
US: Kevin Warsh all set to become the new Fed Chair as Senator Tillis unblocks hold on his confirmation after the DoJ dropped its probe into Powell. Republican Senator Thom Tillis will remove his blockade on Kevin Warsh’s Fed chair confirmation after the Department of Justice (DoJ) dropped its probe into current Chair Powell. The DoJ on Friday transferred the investigation related to the cost overruns about a Fed building renovation project to the Fed’s Office of Inspector General, which had already been investigating the matter since last year at the request of Powell himself. Tillis said that after receiving assurances from the DoJ, “I look forward to supporting Kevin Warsh’s confirmation,” as he believed the DoJ investigation was “closed”. Tillis also emphasized that “only a criminal referral from the inspector-general would cause a reopening of the investigation.” The Senate Banking Committee has scheduled a vote this Wednesday (April 29) to advance Warsh’s confirmation, which should pave the way for his final confirmation in the Senate by a simple majority vote in the coming weeks.
Oil: Prices open higher before paring gains on fresh Iran proposal. Brent futures initially opened higher in Asian markets this morning before paring back gains on the news that Iran had presented the US with a proposal to end the current stalemate. Brent was last trading at $106.6/bbl, up 1.2% from Friday’s close, having been as high as $107.9/bbl (+2.4%) earlier in the morning. It is not clear at this stage whether there is anything new and substantive in Iran’s revised proposal, which was delivered to the Americans by Pakistani mediators. Details are scarce, but it is reported that Iran is proposing an extension of the current ceasefire—but which President Trump has already indicated is not time-limited—to allow for both sides’ negotiators to conclude a more lasting peace deal that would presumably be based on the lifting of both side’s blockades of the Strait of Hormuz. Negotiations on the more intractable issue of Iran’s nuclear program will only begin after that, the Iranians have said. The White House is yet to comment on the proposal.
China: Earnings of industrial companies gain momentum in March despite the heightened geopolitical uncertainty. Latest profits data of industrial companies point to a continued rebound even as broader demand conditions remain uneven. Profits at industrial firms rose 15.8% y/y in March, accelerating from a 15.2% increase in January–February and lifting Q1 growth to 15.5% y/y, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. The improvement was led by manufacturing, where profits rose 19% y/y, alongside solid gains in mining (16%), while utilities (-3.2%) remained a drag. Strength was concentrated in upstream and technology related industries, with particularly sharp increases in mining support services, non-ferrous metals, and electronics manufacturing. Meanwhile, consumer facing sectors continued to lag amid weak domestic demand and rising energy and input costs linked to the Middle East war. This is posing growing risks to margins and underscoring the fragile and uneven nature of the recovery despite the headline improvement in profits.
Global: Fed, ECB, BoE and BoJ meetings and US/Eurozone Q1 GDP key matters this week. In the US, the FOMC will meet on Tuesday/Wednesday, and the expectation is for a hold in the Fed Fund rate. This will likely be the last Fed meeting chaired by Jerome Powell, whose term as Chair expires in mid-May. In terms of data releases, the first estimate of Q1 GDP will be out on Thursday, and the consensus forecast is an annualized 2.1% increase, improving from the shutdown-impacted growth of 0.5% in Q4. Core PCE inflation for March (Thursday) is seen at 0.3% m/m following 0.4% in February. In the Eurozone, the ECB is expected to keep interest rates unchanged on Thursday while the attention will be on ECB President Lagarde’s post-meeting press conference. GDP growth in Q1 (Thursday) is seen stable at 0.2% q/q while headline CPI inflation (Thursday) is expected to rise to 2.9% y/y in April from 2.6% in March. In the UK, the BoE (Thursday) is expected to keep the bank rate unchanged at 3.75%, waiting for more data following the energy price shock, while also publishing its new economic projections. In China, the focus will be on the official PMI surveys (Thursday), with the manufacturing one seen at 50.2 in April (50.4 in March) and the non-manufacturing one at 49.9 (50.1 in March). Finally in Japan, the BoJ meets on Tuesday and is expected to leave the interest rate unchanged at 0.75%. The BoJ will also release updated macroeconomic projections. In terms of data releases, retail sales for March (Thursday) are seen increasing by 0.8% y/y after decreasing 0.2% in February.
Egypt: Finance Ministry ramps up capital injections and debt restructuring for state entities. Egypt’s Ministry of Finance is set to more than double capital injections into state-owned enterprises (SOEs), allocating around EGP125 billion in FY26/27, up from EGP59 billion in the current fiscal year. A key element of this plan is the use of debt-for-equity swaps, where the ministry will convert outstanding debts owed by public entities into equity stakes. By lowering debt burdens, authorities aim to enable SOEs and economic agencies to better manage their financing needs, aligning borrowing levels and maturities with their repayment capacity, without relying on unplanned government support as well as clean up balance sheets. These measures are part of a broader effort to address legacy debt accumulated during years of large-scale infrastructure investment, while strengthening fiscal sustainability. The initiative also supports the government’s objective of reducing the debt-to-GDP ratio to around 78% by June 2027, reinforcing a gradual shift toward a more disciplined and self-sustaining public sector financial framework.